ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its initial ratings for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for both BYU and Utah in the Big 12 is looking bright. Personally, I think this is an exciting development for both programs, and it's worth exploring the implications and what it means for the future of college football in the region. The FPI is a measure of team strength, designed to predict a team's performance for the rest of the season. It represents how many points above or below average a team is. According to ESPN, both BYU and Utah are expected to contend for the Big 12 Conference crown, and this is reflected in the FPI metrics. BYU has a 13.1 score in ESPN's FPI, ranking No. 20 nationally and second in the Big 12. This is a significant improvement from last year, when BYU was projected for 8.0 wins and had a 12.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff. The Cougars ended up going 11-1 in the regular season, losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game and finishing ranked No. 11 in the final Associated Press poll. This season, BYU has the Big 12's second-best odds at winning the conference, making the CFP, and reaching the national championship, all behind defending league champ Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have better than 50% odds to make the playoff (57.9%) and an 8.5% chance of reaching the national title game. One thing that immediately stands out is the strength of BYU's schedule. Last year, when BYU went 11-1 during the regular season, the Cougars were 74th in strength of schedule going into the season, with only one Big 12 team, Houston, lower. This year, BYU's strength of schedule is ninth among Big 12 programs, which is a significant improvement. The Cougars will host Notre Dame, No. 3 in the FPI rankings, on Oct. 17 in a premier nonconference game for the Big 12 this season. In conference games, BYU's highest-rated opponent will be Utah, who is No. 31 in the FPI rankings. Utah has a 8.5 score in ESPN's FPI, ranking No. 31 nationally and third in the Big 12. This is also a significant improvement from last year, when Utah was projected for 6.4 wins and had a 67.3% chance of becoming bowl eligible in the FPI formula. The Utes ended up blowing past those projections, ending the year with an 11-2 record and a top 15 ranking. This season, Utah has the third-best odds in the league to win the Big 12 and is one of three conference teams with better than 10% odds to play their way into the CFP. The only two teams standing above them are the two teams who played in the Big 12 championship game last year, Texas Tech and BYU. Utah's strength of schedule is 13th among Big 12 programs, which is a favorable number for a program returning several key players on both sides of the ball. While Utah's overall strength of schedule last season wasn't much higher — the Utes were No. 58 by FPI's metrics — Utah's strength of schedule last season was sixth-highest in the Big 12, notably higher than this year. Like BYU, Utah won't face the conference's highest-ranked team, No. 10 Texas Tech. The Utes' highest-rated Big 12 opponent they'll face is the No. 20 Cougars, at home on Nov. 7. In nonconference play, the toughest opponent for the Utes will be the SEC's Arkansas, which is ranked No. 47 in the FPI. Utah hosts Arkansas on Sept. 12. What makes this particularly fascinating is the contrast between the two programs. BYU and Utah are both in the Big 12, but they have very different strengths and weaknesses. BYU has a stronger schedule and better odds of winning the conference and the national championship, while Utah has a weaker schedule and slightly lower odds of success. This raises a deeper question: How will the Big 12 evolve in the coming years, and what does this mean for the future of college football in the region? In my opinion, the Big 12 is a conference in transition. With the rise of the SEC and other conferences, the Big 12 is facing increased competition for recruits and fans. At the same time, the conference is working to strengthen its ties with its members and build a more stable and sustainable future. What this really suggests is that the Big 12 is a conference in flux, and the success of programs like BYU and Utah will be crucial in determining its future. If BYU and Utah can continue to perform well and attract top talent, the Big 12 may be able to maintain its relevance and competitiveness in the face of increasing challenges. However, if the conference fails to adapt and evolve, it may struggle to keep up with its rivals and lose ground in the college football landscape. One thing that many people don't realize is the impact that the FPI can have on a program's perception and reputation. The FPI is not just a predictive tool; it's also a measure of a team's strength and potential. For BYU and Utah, a strong FPI rating can help attract top recruits, build excitement among fans, and enhance the program's overall reputation. This can have a ripple effect, leading to increased attendance, more lucrative sponsorship deals, and a more sustainable future for the program. In conclusion, ESPN's FPI ratings for the 2026 college football season are an exciting development for both BYU and Utah in the Big 12. The Cougars and Utes are expected to contend for the conference crown, and this is reflected in the FPI metrics. While BYU has a stronger schedule and better odds of success, Utah has a weaker schedule and slightly lower odds. The future of the Big 12 is uncertain, but the success of these two programs will be crucial in determining its future. If BYU and Utah can continue to perform well and attract top talent, the Big 12 may be able to maintain its relevance and competitiveness. However, if the conference fails to adapt and evolve, it may struggle to keep up with its rivals and lose ground in the college football landscape.
